For the past 7-10 days, a bear-bull clash has pushed Bitcoin into a tight price range.
Traders see short term technical barriers in long term bullish fundamentals. Sentiment is causing Bitcoin to fluctuate within a triangle-like technical pattern, with the upper trendline proving to be resistance and the lower trendline proving to be support.
That’s all the cryptocurrency flagship has to offer: short-term long / short opportunities with no attempted breakouts
It seems safer for traders to take short-term calls rather than stretching their bullish targets beyond Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $ 19,915. Their previous attempts at this have resulted in stop loss triggers – which in turn resulted in billions of dollars‘ worth of liquidations in the Bitcoin Union futures market.
The mood now continues into the new week. Bitcoin has formed a series of lower daily highs after topping at $ 19,915.
Meanwhile, the cops are holding $ 18,000 in support. It’s only a matter of time before you know which level will break through first. The fundamentals could provide the answer.
Bitcoin’s macroeconomic outlook
As the development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines begins, the U.S. economy could gradually recover from the aftermath of the pandemic. In the meantime, Congress could make more specific decisions about its bipartisan efforts to get the second $ 900 billion stimulus package under way.
The US Federal Reserve also meets next week to discuss whether to expand its unlimited bond buying policy from short-dated Treasuries to long-dated ones. In both cases, the US Federal Reserve has made sure it will continue to buy up government and corporate debt and maintain its ultra-low interest rates.
It is safer to assume that investors – not traders – will be watching these developments even if Bitcoin price falls below $ 18,000. A retail investor meltdown would offer those with the long-term perspective an opportunity to buy the cryptocurrency cheaper – especially as more analogies predict that its price will reach at least $ 90,000 in an inflationary environment.
Non-supporting technical factors
Bitcoin opened the week in negative territory. It is down slightly, 0.43 percent, but is trading above $ 19,200, confirming an intraday bias conflict.
Nonetheless, technical indicators are showing a sell-off warning that could push the price towards $ 18,000 this week.
The TD sequence indicator completed its cycle after its ninth and final candlestick was printed. This means that the price can start a downward movement in the form of red candlesticks.
Additionally, for shorter periods of time, the price tends to stay close to its upper resistance area, leading to profit-taking among day traders. All in all, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will continue its uptrend above $ 20,000 this week.
Nevertheless, one should be prepared for surprises.